Daily Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 4th FEB 2025
As Bitcoin traders continue to navigate a volatile market, yesterday's session presented notable price action, offering both opportunities and challenges. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the market momentum and key levels to watch for BTC on February 4, 2025.
30-Minute Timeframe Analysis
Price Action Recap
During pre-market hours, Bitcoin found some support at the $98,200 price level. However, despite four attempts throughout the session, the price failed to breach the key psychological resistance at $100,000. This repeated rejection highlights the market’s struggle to break into higher levels of bullish momentum.
In the late afternoon, news regarding crypto czar David Sacks negatively impacted market sentiment, initiating a sharp downtrend. The price plummeted to $96,400 before closing near this level to end the session. Post-market hours offered a slight recovery, with the descending trendline from the daily chart acting as support, pushing BTC back up to the $98,000 range. Nonetheless, an attempt to reclaim the 50 EMA was sharply rejected, leaving BTC vulnerable to further downside pressure.
Key Observations
Rejection Points: The $98,100 resistance level witnessed five distinct rejection wicks, signaling a struggle to form higher highs.
Volume: Declining volume on shorter timeframes suggests indecision, with the market awaiting a catalyst for the next significant move.
Indicators: RSI on the 30-minute chart sits at 45, reflecting bearish momentum without being oversold. Sellers maintain control but lack overwhelming dominance.
Daily Timeframe Insights
Key Developments
On the daily chart, BTC broke back below the 50 EMA ($98,788) with strong downward momentum. This bearish move coincided with a break through the psychological $100,000 level, a critical marker for market sentiment. Notably, the descending trendline, which has guided price action for weeks, briefly acted as support during after-hours trading, providing a temporary bounce.
Volume Analysis
The 20-day moving average for volume showed elevated activity, emphasizing the strength of bearish momentum. Sellers are clearly in control, as reflected in the rejection of any attempts to push above the 50 EMA.
Critical Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels: $98,788 (50 EMA), $100,000 (psychological level), $101,548.
Support Levels: $96,400 (intraday low), $95,353 (key daily support zone), $92,000 (lower support zone).
Key Questions for Today
The target for today’s price action will hinge on how BTC interacts with the descending trendline:
Will BTC finally close below the trendline, confirming a bearish breakout?
Or will the trendline once again act as support, propelling the price back above key resistance levels?
Summary and Outlook
Short-Term Perspective:
BTC’s consolidation between $97,254 and $98,015 on the 30-minute timeframe reflects indecision. A breakout from this range will likely determine the next intraday trend. Traders should watch for potential volume spikes to confirm direction.
Mid-Term Perspective:
On the daily timeframe, the bearish bias remains strong as BTC struggles to reclaim the 50 EMA and forms lower highs. Sellers have a clear upper hand, with immediate targets at $95,353 and $92,000 if the trendline breaks.
Strategic Notes:
For long positions, a close above the descending trendline and the 50 EMA could signal a shift toward bullish momentum.
For short positions, a confirmed break below $95,353 could open opportunities to target lower support levels.
As always, manage risk appropriately and stay prepared for rapid shifts in market sentiment. The upcoming sessions will be pivotal in defining BTC’s direction, especially with key resistance and support levels being tested.
