Daily Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 3rd FEB 2025
The cryptocurrency markets have been nothing short of dynamic as we navigate through February 2025. Following a dramatic sell-off over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated a blend of volatility and resilience. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of market activity, focusing on key technical insights and price movements over the last 48 hours.
Weekend Sell-Off and Key Recovery Levels
The weekend witnessed an aggressive sell-off that extended into the early Asian sessions on Monday. BTC plummeted to a critical level at $91,000, where significant support was found. This marked a pivotal turning point as price action rebounded sharply, carving out a series of higher highs and higher lows leading into the New York session.
Institutional interest appeared to capitalize on the liquidity generated by this record sell-off. Leveraging the discounted price, large buy transactions drove BTC from $94,700 to $98,800 within the opening 90 minutes of the New York session. The price eventually overcame resistance at the $98,000 daily level, supported by sustained volume, and closed the day at $101,700.
In afterhours trading, BTC attempted to breach the $102,500 key level. However, the absence of volume due to closed markets prevented a successful breakout, leaving the market primed for the next session's activity.
Asian Markets and Recent Price Action
The Asian session delivered another sharp sell-off, driving BTC below $100,000 and breaching both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA on shorter timeframes. Despite this, the price rejected $98,400, signaling passive buying pressure at this critical support level.
This rejection introduces a potential consolidation phase as traders gauge the next directional move. With volume tapering off in the Asian session, attention now shifts to whether European and U.S. markets will sustain or challenge the current support levels.
Technical Insights
30-Minute Timeframe
EMAs and Momentum: BTC is currently battling to reclaim its 50 EMA and 200 EMA, with both serving as dynamic resistance. Short-term momentum suggests the price is range-bound between $98,000 (support) and $101,500 (resistance).
Volume Profile: Significant buy volume was observed near $98,000, indicating accumulation, while diminishing volume near resistance zones ($101,500-$102,500) hints at weakening bullish momentum.
RSI Divergence: Multiple bullish divergences in RSI around lower support zones indicate that bearish momentum may be waning.
Daily Timeframe
Trendlines and Structure: BTC has broken into a clear downtrend, forming lower lows and lower highs. However, the rejection at $91,000 and the close above a descending trendline signal potential for recovery or consolidation.
Key Levels: Support at $96,000-$98,000 remains critical, while resistance at $101,000-$103,000 caps bullish attempts. The $102,500 level is particularly noteworthy as a psychological and technical barrier.
Market Sentiment: The market retains a bearish bias, amplified by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including active trade wars influenced by Trump’s tariffs. These external factors weigh heavily on market confidence.
Synthesis and Outlook
BTC's current market structure presents a mix of bearish momentum and short-term bullish opportunities. The rejection at $98,400 and the sustained close above $91,000 highlight conflicting pressures between sellers and passive buyers.
Short-Term View
In the short term, BTC's trajectory is heavily influenced by whether it can reclaim key moving averages and break resistance at $101,500. A failure to hold support at $98,000 could result in a retest of $96,000 and potentially $94,500.
Mid-Term View
From a mid-term perspective, BTC’s ability to sustain higher lows and reclaim the $102,500 level will be pivotal. Bullish divergences on RSI and sustained accumulation near support zones provide room for optimism, albeit cautiously.
Trading Strategy Considerations
Long Setup:
Entry: $98,000-$98,500
Stop: Below $96,500
Target: $101,500-$103,000
Short Setup:
Entry: $101,000-$102,000
Stop: Above $103,500
Target: $96,500-$94,500
Traders should focus on volume confirmations and monitor macroeconomic developments to refine entries. With major support and resistance levels clearly defined, caution and discipline are paramount in navigating the current market conditions.
As BTC continues to react to global and technical influences, traders must remain agile and adaptable. By leveraging the insights from both shorter and longer timeframes, you can better position yourself in this ever-evolving market landscape.
