Weekend Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 18th-19th JAN 2025
Saturday's Rebound and Bullish Momentum
The weekend began on a strong note for BTC, with a significant rebound on Saturday as buyers stepped in, potentially fuelled by the bullish sentiment often associated with weekends. Notable events like the upcoming "Trump's Crypto Ball," the release of Trump's meme coin, and his inauguration on Monday likely contributed to the market's optimism.
30 min perspective: Quick sell off
Price initially broke above the 50 EMA and surpassed a key resistance level at $103,500. This movement was followed by a healthy upward trend along a supportive trendline, indicating strong market participation. However, the bullish momentum did not last long, as the price later reversed, breaking below the 50 EMA, the trendline, and the $103,500 key level. This cascade of bearish activity continued with the price slipping below the 200 EMA, ultimately testing the key daily price range of $99,000 and retesting the previously broken daily bearish trendline from Thursday.
Despite these bearish signals, the price has now reclaimed the $100,000 range and is striving to close above the 200 EMA. This rebound reflects resilience in the market, though uncertainties remain.
30 Minute Chart
The Impact of Meme Coins and Market Liquidity
The sell-off over the weekend could also be attributed to the recent release of Melania's meme coin, which may have siphoned liquidity from other coins. Traders appeared to hope for similar returns to those seen from Trump’s meme coin earlier in the week, causing a temporary shift in market dynamics.
Daily Perspective: Bullish Signs Amidst Volatility
From a broader daily perspective, BTC's price action remains promising despite the weekend's volatility. The retracement to the previous daily bearish trendline and subsequent rejection has created a significant point of confluence, marking this zone as critical for validating a bullish trajectory. Should the current candle close above this level, it would confirm a new higher low, aligning with a bullish trend structure.
Weekend trading volumes were notably higher than usual, signaling the entrance of new buyers into the market. This is particularly significant given that institutional traders typically avoid weekend trading, leaving room for retail participation to influence market trends.
Daily Chart
Key Technical Indicators
RSI: The RSI is currently undecided, reflecting the potential for price movement in either direction. This neutral stance underscores the importance of monitoring price action closely as the market approaches key levels.
Support and Resistance:
Support: $99,000 and the $100,000 range.
Resistance: $103,500 and $104,000.
Moving Averages:
Price is attempting to close above the 200 EMA, which would be a significant bullish signal.
The Week Ahead: Major News and Market Sentiment
Looking ahead, all eyes are on Monday’s session, with Trump's inauguration poised to be a major news event. The market faces a crucial question: will it "sell the news" or will the event propel BTC’s bullish trajectory further?
Traders should watch for:
A daily close above $103,500 to confirm bullish momentum.
Volume patterns to gauge the strength of new buyers entering the market.
The RSI’s movement to provide clarity on potential directional bias.
Conclusion
While BTC faced a mix of bullish and bearish movements over the weekend, the broader daily perspective remains optimistic. Key levels like $99,000 and $103,500 will dictate the next phase of market action. With significant news events on the horizon, traders must remain vigilant and prepared to adapt to shifting market conditions.
